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May 15, 2007
Wheat
Quality Tour '07
Mark Nelson
This past week I had the opportunity to
participate in the
50th
annual Wheat Quality Council
hard winter wheat tour. It gave me a chance
to see the Kansas wheat crop up close and
given the Easter weekend freeze, a chance to
better assess damage and crop prospects.
The WQC Wheat Tour makes absolutely no claim
about being official in any way. The
results are not reported to USDA, nor are
they used by USDA-NASS as they work to
develop public estimates of crop size.
So what is the tour? The WQC Wheat Tour
represents a great opportunity for a
producer of wheat to visit, interact,
question and be questioned, and ultimately
learn more about the wheat they grow and the
wheat industry that processes it. You will
never be around a more comprehensive and
diverse group of wheat industry
participants. Folks on the tour include the
people who buy your wheat directly, from
elevator managers to grain company
merchandisers; it includes milling company
personnel, bakers and food processors, and
importers from around the world, who want to
see where the wheat they buy is grown.
You’ll encounter shippers of wheat, grain
traders, market consultants, the media and
price analysts. Participants include state
and federal agricultural employees,
university personnel and wheat organization
representatives. The WQC Wheat Tour is an
incredibly diverse group of people, from all
around the world with varying backgrounds
and perspectives, and I’d argue, some of the
nicest people you’ll ever meet.
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The tour covers all of Kansas
plus parts of Nebraska, Colorado
and Oklahoma. The Kansas
portion normally consists of 12
to 16 cars, with three to four
people each traveling the state
on six different routes to scout
winter wheat crop conditions as
of the first few days of May.
Participants are rotated each
day, giving you the chance to
develop a network of people to
keep in contact with over the
years. |
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Each car has at least one rider with several
years of experience who can help newcomers,
and there are also agronomists and extension
specialists who participate on the tour and
are available to help answer any technical
questions during the evening reports when
the whole group gets back together.
The tour relies on the theory of large
numbers. Each car will make anywhere from
12 to 20 stops, so over the three day tour,
more than four hundred Kansas wheat fields
will be examined. At each stop we measure
and examine the wheat (four to eight
separate stalk counts per stop), making a
yield estimate based on formulas provided by
the Kansas Ag Statistics Service. We also
scout for diseases, pests, moisture
conditions and any other factors that could
have an influence on yield or crop quality.
Again, while the results are unofficial,
each car works very hard to accurately
assess the crop. This year, the biggest
factor we examined was freeze damage.
As I mentioned earlier, the WQC Wheat Tour
makes absolutely no claim about being
official in any way, yet not only do market
and agricultural reporters participate on
the tour, they report results each day. And
yes, while tour results have sometimes been
associated in the press with wheat price
declines, if you look back over the years,
WQC Wheat Tour results have also been
associated with price increases on many
occasions.
It is important for producers to understand
that wheat prices change every day and that
the “wheat market” will trade information;
official or unofficial, accurate or
inaccurate, as part of that process. The
benefit of publicly reported information
such as the WQC Wheat Tour and much more
importantly, USDA crop and livestock
reports, is that by making this information
public and available to ALL, we better
ensure an even playing field; one where all
market participants – including farmers –
have the same information. If for some
reason, USDA crop and livestock reports were
no longer funded and/or available to ALL, I
guarantee you, the companies that buy and
process agricultural products would be
working to gather crop and livestock
information. It would cost them but they
would pay whatever necessary because it
impacts their bottom line. And I guarantee
you; they would not share that information
with farmers. We need accurate crop and
livestock information in order to make more
informed marketing and management decisions
and we need that information to be public
and available to all market participants.
First Night - April 30, 2007
The WQC Hard Winter Wheat Tour begins each
year in Manhattan, Kansas. A brief overview
of the tour, what it is about and how it
works is provided and participants introduce
themselves to the rest of the group. Dr.
James Shroyer, Kansas State University,
Extension Agronomy Leader and Wheat
Specialist, provides an overview of the
crop, noting current conditions and
preparing participants for what they may
encounter over the next few days. This
year, significant time was spent preparing
us to recognize and better assess freeze
damage. The bottom line is that it is very
difficult to accurately assess freeze damage
in wheat and that in many fields, only time
and growing conditions over the next 45 to
60 days will tell. Lastly, Eldon Thiessen,
Director of Kansas Agricultural Statistics,
shares with the group some basic mathematic
equations for use in estimating yield based
on the number of stalks per linear foot of
row (the equations are based on a rolling
ten-year average of actual data). Other
factors that come into play with the
equations are row width, stage of growth,
location within the state and average
estimates of head weight. At the end of
this one hour orientation, we had the
opportunity to tour KSU’s Hal Ross Flour
Mill at IGP.
Day One – May 1, 2007
I travel the “pink route” every year and try
to take each of my stops in the same general
area. This year on day one I had the
privilege of riding with three people from
very different segments of the wheat
industry; Ira Oak (wheat miller), Troy
Everett (grain elevator) and Deb Bollman
(futures exchange).
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We left Manhattan at 6:30 am and
traveled east along highway 18
making three stops, one each in
Geary, Dickinson and Ottawa
Counties. From a “freeze”
standpoint, we encountered
significant damage at each stop
but it should be noted that this
route runs north of the severely
impacted areas of Kansas. At
our Geary County stop the
estimated yield was 41 bushels,
nearly 2 bu. less than average.
There was definite freeze
damage, with nearly a third of
the tillers dead but because of
an extremely good stand and
better than average tillering,
potential production was still
good. |
At our Dickinson County stop, freeze damage
was more pronounced with well over half of
the tillers clearly dead or dying.
Estimated yield was 24 bushels. In both of
these stops we observed a fair number of
aphids feeding on damaged tillers and an
average amount of powdery mildew. At our
first Ottawa County stop, a field that had
been grazed and was not as advanced, we saw
much fewer dead tillers, fewer aphids and an
estimated yield of 43 bushels. We had
breakfast in Bennington and visited with a
couple producers. Their observations were
that yields were likely to be reduced from
25% to 50% from what they could’ve been
prior to the freeze. They didn’t believe
that significant acres would be abandoned
but that many producers were now postponing
and/or canceling equipment purchases as a
result of the freeze. From Bennington we
proceeded north on highway 135, making one
more stop in northern Ottawa County, a later
planted field and as a result, showing less
freeze damage, with an estimated yield of 52
bushels per acre. Over our first four stops
topsoil moisture was adequate to surplus
with subsoil moisture the best I’d seen. We
were able to stick a four foot soil probe
all the way down at each stop.
We then turned west on highway 24 making one
stop in each of Cloud and Mitchell
Counties. At these stops we continued to
observe significant freeze damage, with 30%
to 50% of tillers dead or dying but again,
because of better than average tillering,
potential yields were average to slightly
below average with the two stops having
estimated yields of 24 and 34 bushels per
acre. Aphids were present, feeding on
damaged tillers and a little powdery mildew
was present in each field. Topsoil moisture
continued to be adequate to surplus with
subsoil moisture adequate (2.5 to 3 feet).
We finished our morning making two stops in
Osborne County and one in Rooks. Overall,
we continued to see signs of freeze damage
but not nearly as significant. Both top and
subsoil moisture continued to be adequate.
Based on tiller counts, estimated yields
were 43, 35 and 25 bushels respectively but
the stands were good and there was little
insect or disease pressure. We had lunch in
Stockton and were joined by a Stockton
County Farm Bureau Board member.
We then continued west on highway 24 making
one more stop in Rooks County and one stop
each in Graham, Sheridan and Thomas
Counties. We also stopped and toured the
Cottonwood Ranch east of Hoxie, a place I
highly recommend. Estimated yields were 40,
31, 52 and 57 bushels respectively. As we
moved west, the stands continued to improve;
we observed no freeze damage and saw very
little disease or insect pressure; with good
weather over the next seventy days, yields
could be outstanding.
Day One Summary
We end the day in Colby and the group was
joined by a few producers from western
Kansas. There is a general meeting where
each car reports their findings. For my car
(pink route) we made 14 stops in all and our
estimated yield was 37.3 bushels per acre.
The three-car, pink route average was 40.7
bushels per acre with 47 stops. The entire
six route, 14 car, 209 stop average yield
was 40 bushels per acre, which compares to
40.6 (2006) and 48.9 (2005). Northern
routes saw less freeze damage while the
southerly black and blue routes saw more
freeze damage, including fields that had
already been abandoned or were likely to be
abandoned. Significant freeze damage
appeared to end west of highway 281.
Subsoil moisture was the best I’ve seen
since 2002 and was the most consistent over
my route that I’ve ever seen. A group from
Colorado joined us in Colby, reporting a
33.3 bushel estimated yield over 30 stops.
Like western Kansas, Colorado conditions
overall were good. Insulating snow cover
over much of the winter helped the crop and
ensured some of the better stands in recent
years.
Day Two – May 2, 2007
The day two “pink route” is one of the
longer routes, so my car left Colby at 5:45
am and traveled west on I-70 to Goodland. I
had the privilege of riding with Lynda
Soltis (international grain trader), Will
Johnson (wheat buyer for a large miller) and
Dennis Shields (industry analyst for USDA-FSA).
From Goodland we proceed south along highway
27, making stops, in Sherman, Wallace and
northern Greeley Counties. Estimated yields
were 31, 26 and 37 bushels respectively.
Fields were largely free of insects or
disease and moisture levels were good (much
better than recent years). We arrived at
the Tribune Branch Experiment Station at
8:00 am and briefly toured their over-sized
crop rotation, demonstration plots.
We continued south along highway 27, making
another stop in Greeley and one in Hamilton
County. Here yield potential is high, our
estimates were 56 and 55 bushels per acre
but I believe the producers would be very
disappointed if that was all they produced.
Fields were largely free of insects or
disease and our four foot probe went down
all the way.
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At Syracuse, we turned east on
highway 400 making stops in
Kearney and Finney Counties. We
then headed a little ways south
of Garden City and took an old
black top, county road east,
making one more stop in Finney
County and stops in Gray, Ford
and Kiowa Counties. Again,
fields were largely free of
insects and disease, and
moisture was outstanding,
especially when compared to the
last few years. Estimated
yields ranged from 29 to 54
bushels per acre but again;
given current conditions I think
the producers where the counts
suggested less than 30 bushels,
would be disappointed if that
was all they yielded. |
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Our final two stops were in Pratt and
Kingman Counties, it was here that we began
again to see freeze damage, limited in Pratt
but significant in Kingman. The estimated
yield at our Pratt County stop was 61
bushels, moisture was excellent but insect
levels were high. In Kingman County, the
estimated yield was 36 bushels but like many
of the central Kansas fields that we saw the
day before, it was likely half the yield
that would have been if not for the freeze.
In addition, aphid levels were high, feeding
on the damaged tillers.
Day Two Summary
We ended the day in Wichita and the group
was joined by a few producers from central
Kansas, including a couple of Sedgwick
County Farm Bureau Board members. For my
car (pink route) we again made 14 stops and
our estimated yield was 44.8 bushels per
acre. The four-car, pink route average was
46.1 bushels per acre with 68 stops. The
day two, six route, 14 car, 208 stop average
yield was 43.2 bushels per acre, which
compares to 33.5 (2006) and 44.2 (2005).
The entire, two-day, six route, 14 car, 417
stop average yield was 41.6 bushels per
acre, which compares to 37.2 (2006) and 46.5
(2005). The Oklahoma Wheat Commission
reported their tour’s results, reporting a
34.7 bushel estimated yield.
Final Wheat Tour Comments
When the WQC Wheat Tour is complete,
participants are asked to provide and
estimate of the Kansas wheat crop. To do
this we have to come up with an estimate of
abandoned acres, subtract that from the 10.3
million acres planted last fall and multiply
that by our estimate of statewide yield.
All in all I came away feeling better about
our prospects than when I started the tour
but clearly, the Kansas wheat crop was
significantly damaged by the Easter freeze.
I’m estimating that we’ll ultimately abandon
nearly a million acres in 2007, 500,000 of
which as a result of the freeze. In
addition, despite the great yield potential
we have in the western third, I think
overall yields will be about 5.5 bushels
less than what we would have ultimately seen
without the freeze. I’m using a 42.5 bushel
statewide yield estimate.
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As of today, I’m guessing that
Kansas will produce a 398
million bushel crop. Down 25
million bushels due to
abandonment and another 51
million bushels due to reduced
yields, all as a result of the
Easter freeze. The unofficial,
weighted average WQC Tour
participant estimate was 392.7
million bushels.
I strongly recommend that all
wheat producers should at least
once in your life, participate
in the WQC Tour, or at the very
least, come to the day one
(Colby) or day two (Wichita)
summary meetings. The tour
truly represents a golden
opportunity for producers of
wheat to interact with
downstream handlers of your
product. You’ll never be around
a more comprehensive and diverse
group of wheat industry
participants, and I’d argue,
some of the nicest people you’ll
ever meet.
If you’d like more information
about the Wheat Quality Council
Hard Winter Wheat Tour or would
like to participate in the 2008
tour, or if a County Farm Bureau
would like a short presentation
about the tour and wheat
estimates in general, please
feel free to contact me at (785)
587-6103 or
nelsonm@kfb.org.
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Other information on the tour can be
found on the Wheat Quality Council web
site at
www.wheatqualitycouncil.org or by
contacting Ben Handcock at (605)
224-5187.
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