May 15, 2007

 Wheat Quality Tour '07  Mark Nelson

This past week I had the opportunity to participate in the 50th annual Wheat Quality Council hard winter wheat tour.  It gave me a chance to see the Kansas wheat crop up close and given the Easter weekend freeze, a chance to better assess damage and crop prospects. 

The WQC Wheat Tour makes absolutely no claim about being official in any way.  The results are not reported to USDA, nor are they used by USDA-NASS as they work to develop public estimates of crop size. 

So what is the tour?  The WQC Wheat Tour represents a great opportunity for a producer of wheat to visit, interact, question and be questioned, and ultimately learn more about the wheat they grow and the wheat industry that processes it.  You will never be around a more comprehensive and diverse group of wheat industry participants.  Folks on the tour include the people who buy your wheat directly, from elevator managers to grain company merchandisers; it includes milling company personnel, bakers and food processors, and importers from around the world, who want to see where the wheat they buy is grown.  You’ll encounter shippers of wheat, grain traders, market consultants, the media and price analysts.  Participants include state and federal agricultural employees, university personnel and wheat organization representatives.  The WQC Wheat Tour is an incredibly diverse group of people, from all around the world with varying backgrounds and perspectives, and I’d argue, some of the nicest people you’ll ever meet. 

The tour covers all of Kansas plus parts of Nebraska, Colorado and Oklahoma.  The Kansas portion normally consists of 12 to 16 cars, with three to four people each traveling the state on six different routes to scout winter wheat crop conditions as of the first few days of May.  Participants are rotated each day, giving you the chance to develop a network of people to keep in contact with over the years.

Each car has at least one rider with several years of experience who can help newcomers, and there are also agronomists and extension specialists who participate on the tour and are available to help answer any technical questions during the evening reports when the whole group gets back together. 

The tour relies on the theory of large numbers.  Each car will make anywhere from 12 to 20 stops, so over the three day tour, more than four hundred Kansas wheat fields will be examined.  At each stop we measure and examine the wheat (four to eight separate stalk counts per stop), making a yield estimate based on formulas provided by the Kansas Ag Statistics Service.  We also scout for diseases, pests, moisture conditions and any other factors that could have an influence on yield or crop quality.  Again, while the results are unofficial, each car works very hard to accurately assess the crop.  This year, the biggest factor we examined was freeze damage. 

As I mentioned earlier, the WQC Wheat Tour makes absolutely no claim about being official in any way, yet not only do market and agricultural reporters participate on the tour, they report results each day.  And yes, while tour results have sometimes been associated in the press with wheat price declines, if you look back over the years, WQC Wheat Tour results have also been associated with price increases on many occasions. 

It is important for producers to understand that wheat prices change every day and that the “wheat market” will trade information; official or unofficial, accurate or inaccurate, as part of that process.  The benefit of publicly reported information such as the WQC Wheat Tour and much more importantly, USDA crop and livestock reports, is that by making this information public and available to ALL, we better ensure an even playing field; one where all market participants – including farmers – have the same information.  If for some reason, USDA crop and livestock reports were no longer funded and/or available to ALL, I guarantee you, the companies that buy and process agricultural products would be working to gather crop and livestock information.  It would cost them but they would pay whatever necessary because it impacts their bottom line.  And I guarantee you; they would not share that information with farmers.  We need accurate crop and livestock information in order to make more informed marketing and management decisions and we need that information to be public and available to all market participants. 

First Night - April 30, 2007

The WQC Hard Winter Wheat Tour begins each year in Manhattan, Kansas.  A brief overview of the tour, what it is about and how it works is provided and participants introduce themselves to the rest of the group.  Dr. James Shroyer, Kansas State University, Extension Agronomy Leader and Wheat Specialist, provides an overview of the crop, noting current conditions and preparing participants for what they may encounter over the next few days.  This year, significant time was spent preparing us to recognize and better assess freeze damage.  The bottom line is that it is very difficult to accurately assess freeze damage in wheat and that in many fields, only time and growing conditions over the next 45 to 60 days will tell.  Lastly, Eldon Thiessen, Director of Kansas Agricultural Statistics, shares with the group some basic mathematic equations for use in estimating yield based on the number of stalks per linear foot of row (the equations are based on a rolling ten-year average of actual data).  Other factors that come into play with the equations are row width, stage of growth, location within the state and average estimates of head weight.  At the end of this one hour orientation, we had the opportunity to tour KSU’s Hal Ross Flour Mill at IGP. 

Day One – May 1, 2007

I travel the “pink route” every year and try to take each of my stops in the same general area.  This year on day one I had the privilege of riding with three people from very different segments of the wheat industry; Ira Oak (wheat miller), Troy Everett (grain elevator) and Deb Bollman (futures exchange).   

We left Manhattan at 6:30 am and traveled east along highway 18 making three stops, one each in Geary, Dickinson and Ottawa Counties.  From a “freeze” standpoint, we encountered significant damage at each stop but it should be noted that this route runs north of the severely impacted areas of Kansas.  At our Geary County stop the estimated yield was 41 bushels, nearly 2 bu. less than average.  There was definite freeze damage, with nearly a third of the tillers dead but because of an extremely good stand and better than average tillering, potential production was still good.

At our Dickinson County stop, freeze damage was more pronounced with well over half of the tillers clearly dead or dying.  Estimated yield was 24 bushels.  In both of these stops we observed a fair number of aphids feeding on damaged tillers and an average amount of powdery mildew.  At our first Ottawa County stop, a field that had been grazed and was not as advanced, we saw much fewer dead tillers, fewer aphids and an estimated yield of 43 bushels.  We had breakfast in Bennington and visited with a couple producers.  Their observations were that yields were likely to be reduced from 25% to 50% from what they could’ve been prior to the freeze.  They didn’t believe that significant acres would be abandoned but that many producers were now postponing and/or canceling equipment purchases as a result of the freeze.  From Bennington we proceeded north on highway 135, making one more stop in northern Ottawa County, a later planted field and as a result, showing less freeze damage, with an estimated yield of 52 bushels per acre.  Over our first four stops topsoil moisture was adequate to surplus with subsoil moisture the best I’d seen.  We were able to stick a four foot soil probe all the way down at each stop. 

We then turned west on highway 24 making one stop in each of Cloud and Mitchell Counties.  At these stops we continued to observe significant freeze damage, with 30% to 50% of tillers dead or dying but again, because of better than average tillering, potential yields were average to slightly below average with the two stops having estimated yields of 24 and 34 bushels per acre. Aphids were present, feeding on damaged tillers and a little powdery mildew was present in each field.  Topsoil moisture continued to be adequate to surplus with subsoil moisture adequate (2.5 to 3 feet). 

We finished our morning making two stops in Osborne County and one in Rooks.  Overall, we continued to see signs of freeze damage but not nearly as significant.  Both top and subsoil moisture continued to be adequate.  Based on tiller counts, estimated yields were 43, 35 and 25 bushels respectively but the stands were good and there was little insect or disease pressure.  We had lunch in Stockton and were joined by a Stockton County Farm Bureau Board member. 

We then continued west on highway 24 making one more stop in Rooks County and one stop each in Graham, Sheridan and Thomas Counties.  We also stopped and toured the Cottonwood Ranch east of Hoxie, a place I highly recommend.  Estimated yields were 40, 31, 52 and 57 bushels respectively.  As we moved west, the stands continued to improve; we observed no freeze damage and saw very little disease or insect pressure; with good weather over the next seventy days, yields could be outstanding. 

Day One Summary

We end the day in Colby and the group was joined by a few producers from western Kansas.  There is a general meeting where each car reports their findings.  For my car (pink route) we made 14 stops in all and our estimated yield was 37.3 bushels per acre.  The three-car, pink route average was 40.7 bushels per acre with 47 stops.  The entire six route, 14 car, 209 stop average yield was 40 bushels per acre, which compares to 40.6 (2006) and 48.9 (2005).  Northern routes saw less freeze damage while the southerly black and blue routes saw more freeze damage, including fields that had already been abandoned or were likely to be abandoned.  Significant freeze damage appeared to end west of highway 281.  Subsoil moisture was the best I’ve seen since 2002 and was the most consistent over my route that I’ve ever seen.  A group from Colorado joined us in Colby, reporting a 33.3 bushel estimated yield over 30 stops.  Like western Kansas, Colorado conditions overall were good.  Insulating snow cover over much of the winter helped the crop and ensured some of the better stands in recent years. 

Day Two – May 2, 2007

The day two “pink route” is one of the longer routes, so my car left Colby at 5:45 am and traveled west on I-70 to Goodland.  I had the privilege of riding with Lynda Soltis (international grain trader), Will Johnson (wheat buyer for a large miller) and Dennis Shields (industry analyst for USDA-FSA).   

From Goodland we proceed south along highway 27, making stops, in Sherman, Wallace and northern Greeley Counties.  Estimated yields were 31, 26 and 37 bushels respectively.  Fields were largely free of insects or disease and moisture levels were good (much better than recent years).  We arrived at the Tribune Branch Experiment Station at 8:00 am and briefly toured their over-sized crop rotation, demonstration plots. 

We continued south along highway 27, making another stop in Greeley and one in Hamilton County.  Here yield potential is high, our estimates were 56 and 55 bushels per acre but I believe the producers would be very disappointed if that was all they produced.  Fields were largely free of insects or disease and our four foot probe went down all the way. 

At Syracuse, we turned east on highway 400 making stops in Kearney and Finney Counties.  We then headed a little ways south of Garden City and took an old black top, county road east, making one more stop in Finney County and stops in Gray, Ford and Kiowa Counties.  Again, fields were largely free of insects and disease, and moisture was outstanding, especially when compared to the last few years.  Estimated yields ranged from 29 to 54 bushels per acre but again; given current conditions I think the producers where the counts suggested less than 30 bushels, would be disappointed if that was all they yielded.

Our final two stops were in Pratt and Kingman Counties, it was here that we began again to see freeze damage, limited in Pratt but significant in Kingman.  The estimated yield at our Pratt County stop was 61 bushels, moisture was excellent but insect levels were high.  In Kingman County, the estimated yield was 36 bushels but like many of the central Kansas fields that we saw the day before, it was likely half the yield that would have been if not for the freeze.  In addition, aphid levels were high, feeding on the damaged tillers. 

Day Two Summary

We ended the day in Wichita and the group was joined by a few producers from central Kansas, including a couple of Sedgwick County Farm Bureau Board members.  For my car (pink route) we again made 14 stops and our estimated yield was 44.8 bushels per acre.  The four-car, pink route average was 46.1 bushels per acre with 68 stops.  The day two, six route, 14 car, 208 stop average yield was 43.2 bushels per acre, which compares to 33.5 (2006) and 44.2 (2005).  The entire, two-day, six route, 14 car, 417 stop average yield was 41.6 bushels per acre, which compares to 37.2 (2006) and 46.5 (2005).  The Oklahoma Wheat Commission reported their tour’s results, reporting a 34.7 bushel estimated yield.   

Final Wheat Tour Comments

When the WQC Wheat Tour is complete, participants are asked to provide and estimate of the Kansas wheat crop.  To do this we have to come up with an estimate of abandoned acres, subtract that from the 10.3 million acres planted last fall and multiply that by our estimate of statewide yield.  All in all I came away feeling better about our prospects than when I started the tour but clearly, the Kansas wheat crop was significantly damaged by the Easter freeze.  I’m estimating that we’ll ultimately abandon nearly a million acres in 2007, 500,000 of which as a result of the freeze.  In addition, despite the great yield potential we have in the western third, I think overall yields will be about 5.5 bushels less than what we would have ultimately seen without the freeze.  I’m using a 42.5 bushel statewide yield estimate.  

As of today, I’m guessing that Kansas will produce a 398 million bushel crop.  Down 25 million bushels due to abandonment and another 51 million bushels due to reduced yields, all as a result of the Easter freeze.  The unofficial, weighted average WQC Tour participant estimate was 392.7 million bushels. I strongly recommend that all wheat producers should at least once in your life, participate in the WQC Tour, or at the very least, come to the day one (Colby) or day two (Wichita) summary meetings.  The tour truly represents a golden opportunity for producers of wheat to interact with downstream handlers of your product.  You’ll never be around a more comprehensive and diverse group of wheat industry participants, and I’d argue, some of the nicest people you’ll ever meet.  If you’d like more information about the Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Wheat Tour or would like to participate in the 2008 tour, or if a County Farm Bureau would like a short presentation about the tour and wheat estimates in general, please feel free to contact me at (785) 587-6103 or nelsonm@kfb.org.

Other information on the tour can be found on the Wheat Quality Council web site at www.wheatqualitycouncil.org or by contacting Ben Handcock at (605) 224-5187.